IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.8	#266
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.6	#269
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.5	#316

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.4	#173

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.4%	7.6%	4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	14.9	15.4

.500 or above	26.5%	50.3%	23.4%
.500 or above in Conference	42.1%	58.8%	40.0%
Conference Champion	4.1%	8.4%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	14.8%	7.8%	15.7%

First Four	1.9%	2.0%	1.9%
First Round	3.6%	6.6%	3.2%
Second Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 11.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 7	12 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	109	@ Loyola Chicago	L	54-67	11%
Nov 14, 2019	338	Idaho	W	69-62	73%
Nov 15, 2019	271	@ Arkansas St.	L	68-71	41%
Nov 17, 2019	300	VMI	W	73-71	58%
Nov 20, 2019	280	Sacramento St.	W	67-66	54%
Nov 23, 2019	285	@ Portland	L	65-67	44%
Nov 26, 2019	166	@ California	L	62-71	23%
Nov 29, 2019	110	@ Utah	L	62-75	13%
Dec 04, 2019	278	@ Northern Arizona	L	68-70	43%
Dec 07, 2019	147	Northern Illinois	L	64-68	38%
Dec 14, 2019	164	San Diego	L	63-66	41%
Dec 16, 2019	149	Loyola Marymount	L	60-64	38%
Dec 21, 2019	111	@ San Francisco	L	61-74	14%
Dec 29, 2019	92	@ New Mexico	L	68-82	12%
Jan 09, 2020	296	UC Riverside	W	65-60	66%
Jan 16, 2020	289	@ Long Beach St.	L	70-72	45%
Jan 18, 2020	208	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	70-76	31%
Jan 22, 2020	213	Cal St. Fullerton	W	69-68	50%
Jan 26, 2020	183	@ Hawaii	L	62-69	28%
Jan 30, 2020	106	UC Irvine	L	61-68	28%
Feb 01, 2020	327	Cal Poly	W	71-63	74%
Feb 06, 2020	106	@ UC Irvine	L	58-71	14%
Feb 08, 2020	213	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	65-71	31%
Feb 13, 2020	160	UC Santa Barbara	L	64-67	40%
Feb 15, 2020	208	Cal St. Northridge	W	74-73	50%
Feb 20, 2020	327	@ Cal Poly	W	68-66	56%
Feb 22, 2020	160	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	61-70	23%
Feb 29, 2020	289	Long Beach St.	W	73-69	64%
Mar 05, 2020	183	Hawaii	L	65-66	46%
Mar 07, 2020	296	@ UC Riverside	L	62-63	46%
Projected Record						12 - 18	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.0		4.1	1st
2nd									0.0	0.4	1.7	2.9	1.8	0.6	0.1				7.5	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.7	3.3	4.1	1.8	0.3	0.0					10.2	3rd
4th							0.0	1.1	4.5	4.9	1.9	0.2	0.0						12.7	4th
5th						0.1	1.5	5.8	5.6	1.6	0.1								14.6	5th
6th				0.0	0.2	2.3	6.0	5.2	1.4	0.1									15.1	6th
7th			0.0	0.4	2.8	5.8	4.2	0.9	0.0										14.1	7th
8th		0.0	0.9	3.2	4.8	2.9	0.6	0.0											12.5	8th
9th	0.5	1.5	2.8	2.7	1.4	0.2	0.0												9.2	9th

Total	0.5	1.6	3.8	6.3	9.2	11.2	12.4	12.9	12.2	10.2	7.9	5.5	3.3	1.9	0.8	0.2	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
14-2	88.8%	0.7		0.6	0.2	0.0
13-3	69.4%	1.3		0.7	0.5	0.1
12-4	35.1%	1.2		0.5	0.6	0.1	0.0
11-5	10.0%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	4.1%	4.1		2.2	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%		39.7%	39.7%		12.6													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
15-1	0.2%		28.8%	28.8%		13.4											0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
14-2	0.8%		30.5%	30.5%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
13-3	1.9%		21.0%	21.0%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.5
12-4	3.3%		17.9%	17.9%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	2.7
11-5	5.5%		11.7%	11.7%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	4.8
10-6	7.9%		9.5%	9.5%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	7.2
9-7	10.2%		5.9%	5.9%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	9.6
8-8	12.2%		3.7%	3.7%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.4	11.8
7-9	12.9%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.3	12.6
6-10	12.4%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																0.0	0.2	12.2
5-11	11.2%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.1
4-12	9.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
3-13	6.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.3
2-14	3.8%																							3.8
1-15	1.6%																							1.6
0-16	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		4.4%	4.4%	0.0%	15.3											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.0	2.6	95.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%